Politics

Split Decision

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The Democrats will be divided this fall — but so will the Republicans, according to David Broder in the Washington Post. What he calls “the Taft-Goldwater-Reagan wing of the GOP” is just as unhappy with the radical right as DLC centrists are with the Kossacks:

That is why there was so much high-fiving on e-mails and phone calls among other Republicans over the defeat last week of Ralph Reed, the one-time driving force of Pat Robertson’s religious-political movement who lost the nomination for lieutenant governor of Georgia because of his links to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Reed, a major operative in Bush’s presidential campaigns, is a symbol to many others of the influence of the religious right.

Broder thinks this disaffected right-center, furious at ballooning deficits, moralistic intrusiveness, and the mismanagement of the Iraq war, “could spell trouble for Republicans in mobilizing their vote this fall.”

Conclusions? Hah. The electorate is volatile, unpredictable and alienated. Almost anything could happen in 2006, and that could foreshadow 2008 — or provoke an equal and opposite reaction.

Whichever party nominates a centrist, defensively hawkish, fiscally and socially sane candidate will win — unless of course it’s Hillary Clinton. If both parties go to the base, Unity08 steps into the breach.

Nativism and isolationism are a wild card. There are anti-globalism America-firsters, who’d have us withdraw within our borders, on both the left and the right, but they part company on who belongs within those borders, and how they should believe and behave.

The political scene is swimming and spinning and swarming. A new alignment is soon going to precipitate out. But what is it going to be? Or will there be more than one combination? Predictions?