Politics

Polls Show Obama Closing On Hillary

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First the national poll from Gallup, which shows that last week Clinton was up by 16 points. Now the gap is 6 points.

Clinton 42% (-2)
Obama 36% (+3)
Edwards 12% (-2)

Then Kennedy’s endorsement has helped Obama in Massachusetts…

A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary finds Hillary Clinton attracting 43% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 37%. The survey was conducted on the night that Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama but before John Edwards dropped out of the race.

Next, California shows signs of swinging Obama’s way…

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of California’s Democratic Presidential Primary shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by five percentage points. It’s Clinton 38% Obama 33% and John Edwards at 12%. Dennis Kucinich picks up 3% of the vote and 13% are not sure.

Obama is also gaining in New York…

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that Barack Obama might be sneaking up on Hillary Clinton in her home state of New York. Hillary leads with 45% of the vote, followed by Obama at 33% and John Edwards with 10%. In the demographic breakdown, Hillary leads 44%-29% among whites, Obama 44%-32% among African-Americans, and Hillary 64%-31% among Hispanics.

And he’s tied in Connecticut…

New York Senator Hillary Clinton attracts 40% of the vote and so does Illinois Senator Barack Obama. John Edwards is a very distant third at 11% while 3% say they’d vote for some other candidate and 6% are not sure.

Lastly, Rasmussen proposes an interesting scenario…

Today, Clinton is leading in most of the Super Tuesday states and is expected to walk away from February 5 with more delegates than anyone else. But, since the Democrats award delegates proportionally, Obama will pick up a decent share as well. John Edwards will get some too.

Add to that the fact that 20% of the delegates are so-called Super Delegates–Democratic National Committee members, members of Congress, Governors, and other party leaders formally unpledged to any candidate. Theoretically, any candidate who wins 30% of the delegates through Primaries and Caucuses could end up grabbing the nomination with the support of the Super Delegates. For Obama, that becomes even more possible if he were to ultimately win the endorsement of John Edwards.

It is now possible to imagine a scenario where Senator Clinton wins battle after battle, primary after primary, but loses the nomination. If the Democratic Party establishment becomes disenchanted with the tone of her campaign, anything could happen. Eventually, Obama would have to win some more primaries, but a few late victories could be enough to win the hearts and votes of the Super Delegates.

One thing’s for sure. There’s still a lot of time between now and Tuesday. Actually, almost an eternity in this wild primary season. Will Obama continue to close on Hillary?

More as it develops.