Indiana Delegates Likely To Split Between Obama, Clinton

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That’s the math from CQ Politics:

There are 72 pledged delegates at stake in the Indiana primary, along with 13 of those officially unpledged party leaders and elected officials known as “superdelegates.” Of those 72 pledged delegates, 47 are allocated among the state’s nine congressional districts and will be apportioned between Clinton and Obama based on how well they do in those individual districts. The other 25 pledged delegates will be divided between Obama and Clinton based on the statewide vote.

This analysis gives Clinton a 24 to 23 edge over Obama in the race for the 47 district-level delegates — with the disclaimer that this is a projection and not a hard-and-fast prediction, because of the convoluted way in which the delegates will be distributed can produce some unpredictable results.

So how will the other 25 break?

The other 25 pledged delegates at stake — 16 “at-large” delegates and nine party leader and elected officials (PLEOs) — will be distributed in proportion to the statewide vote. The 16 at-large delegates will split 8-8 if the winner takes less than 53.1 percent of the vote. The statewide winner is guaranteed a 5-4 victory among the nine PLEOs; it would require 61.1 percent of the statewide vote for a 6-3 edge.

So a contest in which the popular vote winner prevails by a 6 percentage-point margin — an entirely plausible outcome — could give him or her just one more of Indiana’s pledge delegates than the loser.

How much do you want to bet if Obama wins Indiana, Hillary makes the case that she won nearly just as many delegates and doesn’t drop out?

  • wj

    Nope. If Obama wins Indiana then it is (by definition) a “small state”. And therefore the results do not matter. On the other hand, if Clinton wins, it is a major turning point.

    All you have to do is understand the patterns in the way campaigns analyze (spin) results.