When You Count ALL The Votes, Obama Wins Popular Vote

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Hillary is currently claiming she has won more popular votes than any other candidate in history, but don’t believe the hype folks. That claim is only correct if you don’t count popular votes out of 4 caucus states.

Of course this hasn’t stopped the news orgs from repeating this myth, but let’s get into the real numbers.

Total Popular Vote, including FL
Obama: 17,535,458 – 48.1%
Clinton: 17,493,836 – 48.0%

Total Popular Vote, including FL & MI
Obama: 17,773,626 – 48.0%
Clinton: 17,822,145 – 48.1%

Total Popular Vote including FL, MI, IA, NV, ME, & WA
Obama: 18,107,710 – 48.1%
Clinton: 18,046,007 – 47.9%

So THAT’S the reality folks, not the Clinton spin. She can claim a popular vote win all she wants, but it’s just not true…nor was it EVER supposed to be a measure in these contests, just like it’s not a measure in the general election.

Numbers courtesy of Real Clear Politics

  • http://stubbornfacts.us/ Tully

    Do note the word “estimate” in the source numbers. There are no good numbers for the four caucus states.

    The point Clinton has been making all along is of course that there are large numbers of the party not on Obama’s side, and that she has some significant sway with them.

  • http://stubbornfacts.us/ Tully

    Note also that the estimates assign ALL the uncommitted MI votes to Obama, which is clearly not sustainable logic. At the time of the vote he was running third in MI, and counting Edwards votes for Obama when he was still in the race is clearly stacking the deck. Even assuming all the “Uncommitted” votes went to Obama, it’a also stacking the deck to assign him the seperate “Undecided” votes registered, 9%+ of all votes cast.

    You don’t get from A to B without claiming votes that were not cast for Obama. Not that it matters–delegates are what counts, and Clinton’s pounding on the popular vote has never really been a quantitative argument at all, other than one of size, where close counts almost as much as ahead.

  • http://www.donklephant.com Justin Gardner

    Actually, Obama was running second in the Michigan polls, but I digress…

    I think you get the point of this article, which is to suggest that there’s no real good measure, because once you start down this rabbit hole, well, “How about giving Obama all the Michigan uncommitted votes since he got all the uncommitted delegates? And what about those caucus states?”

    Also, Hillary should have stopped at this line, “there are large numbers of the party not on Obama’s side, and that she has some significant sway with them.” I would have been fine with that, but she didn’t stop there, and she’s proven that once again in this campaign she’ll make a completely intellectually dishonest argument to try and fool the voters.

  • Mary Ann Rundell

    How about the voters who couldn’t vote for Obama in Michigan? And the voters in Florida who didn’t vote because they were told it wouldn’t count?And let’s also minus the Rush’s Operation Chaos votes from Hillary’s column. Things look a little different.

  • BenRad

    I found this quick summary of all of the mistakes Hillary made during her campaign. It’s funny as hell. Here it is:


  • http://stubbornfacts.us/ Tully

    If you want to be technical, Obama was running third to “undecided” in MI and steadily losing ground at the time of the election (polling including his name continued until 1/12–I’ve seen the internals) though that’s also somewhat due to pulling his name off of the ballot.

    *I think you get the point of this article, which is to suggest that there’s no real good measure,*

    Indeed, I’m emphasizing it. It has NEVER been about the popular vote, that’s a talking point Clinton used to emphasize how much trouble she could cause, and to boost her buyout price. The award of MI delegates to him was arbitrary, but essentially meaningless. The supers were waiting for the end of the primaries to declare, but their minds were made up before then, and had he not gotten the MI delegates he would still have gone over the top this week. Had that not already been settled, MI delegates would likely never have been counted at all…until the convention, after Obama had sealed.