Politics

Rasmussen: Obama Leads By 1, Tied

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With leaners
Obama – 48%
McCain – 47%

Without leaners
Obama – 46%
McCain – 46%

Is the bounce over? The numbers would suggest they are as McCain drops a point in the “with leaners” numbers.

But what about that all important female vote?

Rasmussen Reports polling has consistently shown a similar result, but it is important to note that there is nothing unusual about this finding. Four years ago, President Bush managed to defeat Senator John Kerry 55% to 44% among white women. Today’s tracking poll data shows McCain leading 51% to 44% among this group.

Among all women, Obama leads by eight. Among men, McCain leads by eight.

As stated yesterday, if McCain can maintain this tie it will be a great conclusion for him from the convention. But if he drops to 3 points behind, like he was before both conventions, the RNC basically did very little for him when it comes to the national popular vote. But the same is true for Obama.

The 5 day w/leaners:
09/10/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 48%
09/09/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 48%
09/08/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 47%
09/07/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 48%
09/06/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 49%

The 5 day w/o leaners:
09/10/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/09/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/08/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 46%
09/07/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/06/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 46%

More tomorrow…