A New Electoral Reality: Obama 380, McCain 158
With West Virginia now being thrown into the toss-up column on Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight, this is what it would look like if Obama won all the swing states.
What’s more, if electoral history is any judge, the pickup of West Virginia wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Going back to the election of 1968, Dems have won the state 6 out of the last 10 elections.
Still, is it likely that Obama will get 380?
No. My best guess is he won’t pick up West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina or Missouri, which would leave him at 318. Obviously that’s still a healthy margin, and would be considered a big win, but not a landslide.
Also, here’s another handy guide from DemConWatch that aggregates all of the polls and shows which pollster considers states going for Obama, Obama Leaning, Tied, McCain Leaning and going for McCain.
More as it develops…