A New Electoral Reality: Obama 380, McCain 158

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With West Virginia now being thrown into the toss-up column on Pollster.com and FiveThirtyEight, this is what it would look like if Obama won all the swing states.

What’s more, if electoral history is any judge, the pickup of West Virginia wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Going back to the election of 1968, Dems have won the state 6 out of the last 10 elections.

Still, is it likely that Obama will get 380?

No. My best guess is he won’t pick up West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina or Missouri, which would leave him at 318. Obviously that’s still a healthy margin, and would be considered a big win, but not a landslide.

Also, here’s another handy guide from DemConWatch that aggregates all of the polls and shows which pollster considers states going for Obama, Obama Leaning, Tied, McCain Leaning and going for McCain.

More as it develops…

  • http://www.stuperb.com Stuperb

    While I love to see the blue steadily spreading southward and westward from New England, and I think that the overall picture looks good for Obama right now, I’d be *really* surprised if Obama took West Virginia.

    Come on, Obama. Surprise me!

  • owen

    Wow. in the Dem Primary Obama only got 26% to Hillary’s 67% and Edwards’ 7% (who had already dropped out). For Obama to win WV would be amazing considering the Appalachians is perhaps the most racist region of the country (after Boston of course 😉

  • Robert

    I can not wait until this election is over, and the liberal media discovers that they do not control this country. I have a feeling that McCain has a better chance at getting 380 than Obama. McCain is called the comeback king for many reasons. The truth is that the polls are not accurate. We shall see in November.