AP Poll: Obama Leads In 8 Swing States

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Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days.

Colorado: Obama +9
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%

Florida: Obama + 2
Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

New Hampshire: Obama +18
Obama: 55%
McCain: 37%

North Carolina: Obama +2
Obama: 48%
McCain: 46%

Ohio: Obama +7
Obama: 48%
McCain: 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

Virginia: Obama + 7
Obama: 49%
McCain: 42%

My prediction? Any state where there’s a margin of 5 or less, he’ll lose. So that means Florida and North Carolina probably won’t turn out in Obama’s favor come election day. I really think undecideds will start to break 2 to 1 for McCain because they’re just nervous that Obama will tax the hell out of them.

And even though Obama leads by 7 in Ohio, I also have my doubts he’ll take it. I just don’t think there are enough early votes there to swing it.

But all the rest? Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire are Obama’s.

What do you think?

  • Avinash_Tyagi

    I disagree, until we know the effect of early/absentee voting, black youth turnout, cellphone only voters, etc.

    At this point I hesitate to call any of these states one way or the other, six days is an eternity, anything can happen in this environment

  • pico

    I do think undecideds will break heavily for McCain, but I also think a huge increase in African American turnout and a modest increase in youth turnout may help to counterbalance this to some degree. Florida is one of the few states that’s trending McCain, and I doubt Obama’s 2 point lead will hold. Also, even though McCain’s numbers have taken a nosedive in Ohio recently I have a hard time believing Obama will take it. I’m inclined to believe he’ll take the rest though, including North Carolina, again due to increased African American turnout which has already materialized with the early vote.

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    For what its worth, state polls generally lag the national polls. *If* things are genuinely tightening, you probably wont see all of the movement until the last minute.

    “Any state where there’s a margin of 5 or less, he’ll lose.”

    Wow…even I would limit that to three or less.

  • http://belowthebeltway.com/ Doug Mataconis


    The so-called state poll lag effect is a myth:


  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    So says that guy. I’ve already stated that I think my own predictions will bury his. I’ll looked at his work and it strikes me as incredibly shoddy.

    I cant help it if the guy cant count. For example, Rasmussen, Gallup, and Zogby all use two day windows for their tracking.

    State polls, take Florida for example, will use windows of up to five days. Thus if there is movement they will still not be taking that fully into account. So it has nothing to do with when the poll numbers are released (as he bizarrely contends), it has to do with differences in methodology.

  • http://itsthe21stcenturystupid.wordpress.com/ Jim S

    Nate Silver vs. Rich Horton. I think I’ll take Nate in that contest.

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    Well…it will be an objective measure no matter what. lol

    I’ll have my last set of projections up on Friday afternoon.

    And yes, when it comes to training, its the Political Science department of the University of Illinois vs. Baseball Prospectus.

    Should be fun.

  • kranky kritter

    C’mon Justin, show some sack for gosh’s sake. You’ve been reporting daily polls like gospel for MONTHS, and now you are going to bail on them because you feel all nervous Nelly? Poof!

    What you gave us isn’t a prediction. It’s simply a reassurance based on conceding all the semi-close states, which Obama doesn’t even need to win.

    I called for a late closing because it usually happens as people have 2nd thoughts. Wedding eve jitters. That’s what we are seeing now, amplified by late and desperate negativity.

    The question is whetehr this trend has legs. I don’t think it does. McCain lacks support for his affirmative case. No one besides McCain himself is making it. The best bellwether IMO is the feel of capitulation among cpnservatives on blogs, as well as the vociferous anti-Obama tone at places like Instapundit, coupled with a lack of pro-McCain accompaniment. It’s ALL ALL ALL about Obama, and to me that means not nearly enough people are buying McCain on his own merits. Coupled with the fact that Mcain is showing way too much weakness in places where he MUST be a no-brainer in order to win nationally, I think that we get one of two results:

    • Obama holds on in half or most of the states where he has a small lead. He might lose FL and IN, but he’ll carry OH, CO, and VA.

    • People dismiss their doubts, some undecided folks vote with the crowd to back a winner and be on the side of history, and Obama ends up around 400 EV.