Dick Morris’ Crazy Electoral Map

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Arkansas solidly blue?

Arizona and Tennessee leaning Obama?

Louisiana, Georgia and South Carolina now toss ups?

Take a peek into the weird little corner of the blogopshere that is Dick Morris’ electoral predictions…

Want to know the real reason why Morris did this?

To push the McCain comeback meme…

If the election took place this week, it would be a wipeout of major proportions. Even McCain‘s home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes.

But the campaign has three weeks to run. If the financial crisis begins to settle down, and voters can take a good look at the man they are about to elect president, there is still time and a real chance for a major swing back to McCain. It looks like the campaign 2008 roller coaster still has several more turns to make, before the historic ride is over.

He knows very well that his map doesn’t represent realistic numbers, so once McCain gains back a few states from the tossup column in the coming weeks it will represent the “major swing back to McCain” that he’s talking about.

Hacktackular stuff…my friends.

  • ExiledIndependent

    Prediction made here first–Obama’s votes on election day will be 7-10% lower than what polls are tracking. People are afraid of saying that the Emperor has no clothes, and a private voting booth is a powerful thing. Additionally, Obama is making a risky bet that traditionally low-turnout demographics like the youth vote will match action with intent and actually make it to the polling station.

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    Hey if you dont like Dick’s you can always use mine.

  • http://www.terrasears.com Terra

    Wow… and wow…

    Well as a person that traditionally didn’t vote, I can say at least one of those non voters is showing up this year to vote for Obama…

  • Ed

    Here’s my prediction: ExiledIndependent is going to be very disappointed on November 5th when his transparent rewording of the “Bradley Effect” doesn’t come true. Even so, the lame “empty suit” argument vs. Obama would have worked much better if McCain could himself pass the commander-in-chief test. No rational person looks at McCain and sees a temperament suited for the White House, nor do they see someone with the intelligence or aptitude to run the country.

  • rusty075

    Exiled, the Bradley Effect has been pretty soundly debunked this cycle. A lot has changed since its namesake election. You should check out Nate Silver’s analysis of it over at FiveThirtyEight.

    Not that I want to give any credence to Morris’ wackiness, but he may not be far off about Arizona. Something odd started happening here in Phoenix last weekend: Obama has been buying commercial airtime. One of the blessings of being in one of the candidate’s home states is that we’ve seen zero presidential advertising since the Dem primary. But since last weekend there’s been about 1 Obama ad per hour during primetime on the local stations.

    Either Obama’s internals are telling him something, or he really does have money to burn.

  • http://www.donklephant.com Justin Gardner

    Rich, I actually think that’s right on. I think McCain will break 200 barely, and so Obama stays in the 330 range. That’s my prediction too.

  • http://leapsecond.wordpress.com leapsecond

    I don’t know what’s more astounding: Morris’s map or someone referring to Morris as a “political analyst extraordinaire”…

  • bubbles

    I’m not making any predictions until election day.

    But I will say that Obama’s got the wide advantage.

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    Just to clarify…my thoughts are based upon if the election were held today. There will be possible changes of course.

    Good to know I sound more plausible than Morris.

  • Avinash_Tyagi

    I’m predicting 333-405 Electoral Votes, with 364 being the most likely, based on recent polls

  • susan

    The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

    Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

    The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

    See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    I never understand the point of trying to destroy federalism. Additionally, I’ve never seen an analysis that betters that of Madison, Hamilton and Jay.

    I’ve generally found that attempts to “fix” what isn’t broken only lead to actually breaking things.

  • http://miamiherald.com Jackson

    Ed, you are a moron! McCain is a leader, experienced, mature, seasoned, a war hero and he will win this crazy election where everyone from CNN to CBS is in the tank for the other side. Obama is NOT the black madonna!
    People, wake up! This guy is a JUNIOR Senator with no real world experience to lead this nation.