Insider Advantage: Obama Up By 1 In Georgia
Alright folks, because of massive turnout by African Americans in early voting, I think Georgia may actually be in the mix this year.
Let’s remember that Obama “routed” (per Alan’s hilarious scale) Hillary in the primary season by 35 points, so he’s certainly a popular figure in the state.
â€œObama is doing better among white voters than Kerry did in 2004 (according to exit polls of that race), carrying some 28 percent of the white vote. Heâ€™s carrying around 75 percent both of the Hispanic and â€˜otherâ€™ vote, which makes up between four and five percent of Georgiaâ€™s electorate. He is winning among independents, outside of the margin of error of the poll.
â€œWhile this is a tight race, the problem for McCain is that all but 3 percent of whites have made their decision and approximately 8 percent of black voters have continued to say they are undecided or voting â€˜other.â€™ This will likely move closer to 95 percent for Obama when all said and done. Obama has room to go up.
â€œIf the race were to remain the way it is today, you wonâ€™t see these numbers come to fruition until very late in the night of Nov. 4 or perhaps the next day. The early numbers will likely show McCain ahead, as the counties where Obama is doing best are some of the largest counties and will be the slowest to report.â€
Still, as we’re all very aware of by now, Obama doesn’t need to win Georgia. This state would just be electoral gravy for him. But McCain absolutely, 100% needs to win it, and the fact that he may have to pour increasingly dwindling resources into the state just to keep his numbers from slipping shows you how dire his situation is.
More as it develops…