Politics

Not Quite Over

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Bloomberg lays out the very difficult road ahead for John McCain if he hopes to win this election. Simply, no candidate has ever won the presidency after being this far down in the polls, this close to the election.

The plethora of polls with varying margins between the candidates makes it hard to know exactly how far behind McCain is but we can confidently assume he is behind as not a single poll shows him in the lead. Barring a major surprise, I’d suspect to see Barack Obama winning by no less than three percentage points and at least 300 electoral votes.

That said, polls are only a measure of mood. With one-in-seven voters saying they are still persuadable, it’s folly to assume this election is already in the bag for Obama. I’m sure most smart Obama supporters will be holding their breath until all the votes are counted.