Politics

Swing State Polls Signal Big Electoral Shift For Obama

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Earlier I shared some electoral projections that hinted at an Obama blowout, and now I have two sets of swing state polls that provide even more good news for his camp.

The key here is that Obama has crossed the 50% threshold in most of these polls with just a little more than a month to go. That’s incredibly significant since, traditionally, once a candidate crosses that 50% line it’s hard for the challenger to make up enough ground to beat them. It’s certainly not impossible, but it’s one hell of an uphill battle.

First Quinnipiac shows big gains for Obama in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 43%

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 39%

Then CNN/TIME polling shows similar trends…

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%

Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%

Of note, McCain was never expected to win either Minnesota or Pennsylvania, but they have been closer this election season. Now they seem to be completely out of reach.

Also, a surprise Obama pickup could be Missouri, which was seen as a near gimme for McCain. So if the Illinois senator actually does capture the POTUS and wins the Show-Me state in a squeaker (as he did in the primaries against Hillary), Missouri will continue its streak of picking the right candidate in every single election in the past 100 years except for one.