Politics

Election Prediction: Obama 367 McCain 171

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Presidential Election

Electoral College:

Final EV Prediction

Popular Vote:

  1. Barack Obama — 52%
  2. John McCain — 45%
  3. Bob Barr —- 1% (first Libertarian Party candidate to receive over 1,000,000 popular votes)
  4. Ralph Nader — 1%
  5. Other candidates — 1 %

United States Senate:

56 Democrats
41 Republicans
2 Independents

Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, and Oregon. The race in Minnesota will be tight, and because it’s a three-way race, Al Franken could pull out a win if Democratic turnout is high enough, but, in the end, I think Norm Coleman will win by the skin of his teeth and be one of the few Republican bright spots of the night.

You will notice that the numbers above don’t add up to 100.

That’s because there will be one Senate race that remain unresolved on November 5th. The Senate race in Georgia will need to be decided by a runoff between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin sometime in December because neither candidate will get the 50% of the vote needed to win, thanks to a surprisingly strong showing by the Libertarian Party’s candidate Allen Buckley.

This is a replay of what happened in 1992 when Paul Coverdale had to face Wyche Fowler in a runoff when Jim Hudson, the Libertarian Party candidate that year, garnered 3% of the vote and prevented both candidates from gaining a majority. In `92, most of Hudson’s voters ended up supporting the Republican candidate in the runoff. Will that happen again in 2008, or will they turn against the incumbent ?

United States House Of Representatives

Democrats — 260 seats
Republicans — 174 seats

A net gain of twenty-five seats for the Democrats, including a pickup of retiring Republican Tom Davis’s seat in Virginia’s 11th Congressional District.

Miscellaneous

  1. Proposition 8 will fail in California, by a narrower margin than Obama’s victory there, but by a sufficiently large margin to make people start to wonder if the battle over gay marriage has taken a new turn.
  2. Obama will be declared the victor at 10:15pm EST.
  3. Voter turnout, as measured by percentage of the voting age population that actually casts a ballot, will exceed the post 26th Amendment record of 55.21% set in 1972.
  4. While McCain will win in South Carolina and Mississippi, his margin of victory will be smaller than polls are currently showing thanks to massive African-American turnout.