Politics

Senate Repub Retirements Outnumber Dems’ 3 To 1

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Chris Dodd Byron Dorgan Bill Ritter

As the title suggest, the retirements of Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) are far outweighed by the 6 Republican Senators who aren’t seeking reelection.

And yet the media is crowing about the Dems? Why? Because it makes for a better story?

Steve Benen provides some additional perspective about the House and Governor races…

In the House, 14 GOP incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while 10 Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Does this mean Republicans are “dropping like flies”? […]

Among governors, several incumbents in both parties are term-limited and prevented from running again, but only three Democrats who can seek re-election — Parkinson in Kansas, Doyle in Wisconsin, and Ritter in Colorado — have chosen not to. For Republicans, the number is four — Douglas in Vermont, Rell in Connecticut, Crist in Florida, and Pawlenty in Minnesota. (Update: the GOP number is five if we include Palin in Alaska.)

So let’s add that all up…

Republicans: 6 Senate + 14 House + 5 Governors = 25
Democrats: 2 Senate + 10 House + 3 Governors = 15

I’m with Benen here…why is the media characterizing this as “Democrats Dropping Like Flies?”

Chris Cillizza adds some more insight about the House races and how it looks pretty much like a wash when you see how the districts voted for POTUS in 2008. I’ve added some additional notes estimating which is Solid, Probable and Tossups (leaning R & D), as well as totals for each AND a grand total. Then a bit more analysis after all of it that really drives home how silly this story is…

Republican Open Seats (14)
Delaware’s at-large (Obama 62 percent) – Solid D
California’s 19th (McCain 52 percent) – Tossup R
Florida’s 12th (McCain 50 percent) – Tossup R
Georgia’s 9th (McCain 75 percent) – Solid R
Illinois’ 10th (Obama 61 percent) – Solid D
Kansas’ 1st (McCain 69 percent) – Solid R
Kansas’ 4th (McCain 58 percent) – Probable R
Michigan’s 2nd (McCain 51 percent) – Tossup R
Missouri’s 7th (McCain 63 percent) – Solid R
Oklahoma’s 5th (McCain 59 percent) – Probable R
Pennsylvania’s 6th (Obama 58 percent) – Probable D
South Carolina’s 1st (McCain 56 percent) – Probable R
South Carolina’s 3rd (McCain 64 percent) – Solid R
Tennessee’s 3rd (McCain 62 percent) – Solid R
Total: R = 8, D = 3, T-R = 3

Democratic Open Seats (10)
Alabama’s 7th (Obama 74 percent) – Solid D
Florida’s 17th (Obama 87 percent) – Solid D
Hawaii’s 1st (Obama 70 percent) – Solid D
Kansas’ 3rd (Obama 51 percent) – Tossup D
Louisiana’s 3rd (McCain 61 percent) – Solid R
New Hampshire’s 2nd (Obama 56 percent) – Probable D
Pennsylvania’s 7th (Obama 56 percent) – Probable D
Tennessee’s 6th (McCain 62 percent) – Solid R
Tennessee’s 8th (McCain 56 percent) – Probable R
Washington’s 3rd (Obama 53 percent) – Tossup D
Total: D = 5, R = 3, T-D = 2

Grand Total: R = 11, D = 8, T-R = 3, T-D = 2

So, we started out with 14 Republicans retiring and 10 Democrats retiring and we end up with a likely scenario of……………14 Republicans and 10 Democrats being elected.

Yes, that’s right, the balance of power is likely to stay exactly the same. Sure, there could be some surprises between now and then, but this new meme by the media that Democrats are in trouble just doesn’t carry any weight.

Of course, this could ultimately help the Dems. Because if the public swallows this nonsense and the Republicans barely move the needle…isn’t that a win for the Dems?