Politics

Election 2010: Incumbents Beware!

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A lot happened last night. So if you weren’t keeping score…here are the highlights…

  • Moderate Arlen Specter lost to liberal Joe Sestak in PA…
  • Conservative/Libertarian Rand Paul captured the Republican nomination in Kentucky from the establishment’s candidate…
  • Dem Blanche Lincoln didn’t get enough votes to prevent a runoff in Arkansas…
  • However, in the special election to replace the late John Murtha in PA’s moderate 12th District…which went for McCain in 2008…Dems easily won the seat…

And, before that…

  • Bob Bennett lost the Republican primary in Utah…
  • Charlie Crist switched to Independent because Marco Rubio was leading in Republican primary polling…

So what do all of these things signal?

Basically…don’t accept the “conventional” wisdom that we’ll see a wave election with Republicans sweeping into power. The signs just don’t point towards that, especially since the only thing that people don’t like more than Congressional Democrats are Congressional Republicans.

So, to all of you weak incumbents…watch out.

Steve Benen provides some additional perspective…

For those keeping score, there have been seven special elections for U.S. House seats since the president’s inauguration 16 months ago: NY20, IL5, CA32, CA10, NY23, FL19, and PA12. Democrats have won all seven.

Scott Brown aside…there really haven’t been many surprises for Dems. In fact, Republicans have had a lot more to be concerned with since many of their incumbents are being challenged, ousted, etc.

More as it develops…