Politics

Gallup: Re-Elect Obama? Americans Split

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In early 2011, just half a year away, we’ll be seeing the GOP presidential hopefuls start to jockey for the top spot in earnest. And they’ll be bolstered by Republican gains in the midterms, as well as the perception that the Tea Party movement can turn out the vote come 2012.

What else will bolster them?

Polls like these…

PRINCETON, NJ — U.S. registered voters remain split on whether President Obama deserves to be re-elected in 2012, with 46% saying he does and 51% saying he does not — little changed from earlier this year.

The most recent Obama re-elect measure is similar to the president’s basic job approval rating among all Americans, which was 50% in the June 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll and 48% in Gallup Daily tracking for the same period.

Here are the numbers…

And here’s how that shakes out when looking at party affiliation…

Still, this doesn’t mean that Obama will lose the election…

However, history shows that much can change in the years prior to a presidential election. Gallup surveys in late April/early May 2002 found 69% of registered voters saying President George W. Bush deserved re-election. This was at a time when Bush’s job approval rating was 77%, reflecting the rally effect that followed the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C. By October 2004, just before the election, Bush’s approval had fallen into the 50% range and his “deserves re-election” percentage had dropped to 50%. Bush ended up receiving 51% of the popular vote to John Kerry’s 48%.

Ultimately, I think 2012 will come down to the economy and whether or not Americans will trust Repubs or Dems more.

More as it develops…