Predictions For Nov 2
First off, I think almost all of the major Tea Party Senate candidates will lose. That means O’Donnell, Angle and Miller will not be going to Washington. However, I think Rand Paul will squeak out a victory in Kentucky.
So what will the split end up looking like?
Dems – 52
Repubs – 48
I’m not sure what this will do to the mood of the Tea Party, but it could very well energize them (meaning conservative Republicans who simply call themselves Tea Partiers) to continue to push for more extreme candidates.
What I think is obvious from the results above is had they not fielded candidates like O’Donnell and Angle (and to some extent Miller, although Repubs are very likely to retain their seat in Alaska) they’d be looking at a majority in both chambers of Congress. So there’s that.
In the House, Repubs are set to gain quite a few seats and my guess is 50+. Centrist Dems simply won’t be able to hold on to the gains they’ve made over the past 6 years and 2012 is likely to yield even more swing towards the Repubs with redistricting happening across the nation in the next couple years.
Repubs – 231
Dems – 204
However, will all the pomp about the Tea Party, I see them having a negligible effect on the day to day of that branch. Still, we’re sure to see some really crazy speeches in the next couple years, which may help Obama get reelected.
What are you predicts?