Florida Preview: Mitt Walks Away With It

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According to FiveThirtyEight, looks like Mitt is certain to win in Florida tonight…

The support for Gingrich had the floor drop out of it for two reasons. First, Romney has been outspending like crazy has gone gone incredibly negative. Second, Romney was better at the last debate. Had their been an additional debate scheduled, Newt might have been able to mount a comeback, but that doesn’t look likely now.

Interesting to see how the debates are actually perceived as having an effect in this primary cycle. Perhaps all 1,037 were worth it.

Here’s some more about what this means for Gingrich…

If the results are close enough that it takes some time to declare a winner in Florida, Mr. Gingrich might be able to declare a moral victory of sorts, chalking up the result to an uncharacteristically poor performance in the debates and to Mr. Romney’s substantial advantage in advertising dollars. These excuses are not necessarily convincing ones, but they are liable to be given more credence by the news media the longer it takes to call the state.

Barring a win or a close call, Mr. Gingrich’s ability to spin the outcome might depend on the extent to which he is able to point toward any signs of life in the exit polls. One reason that Mr. Gingrich’s victory in South Carolina seemed so persuasive was that he beat Mr. Romney among almost every demographic cohort. If Mr. Romney’s victory instead appeared to result from groups like Cuban Americans that have more presence in Florida than in other states, Mr. Gingrich might make a credible claim toward being poised to rebound in subsequent contests.

More as it develops…

  • Tully

    If you’ll dig into the demographics you’ll find that Gingrich got his ass handed to him by women. Among men he held up OK, though not well enough to beat Romney even among men. But among women he polled horribly.

    I think the last couple of months have allowed voters to see how schizoid and venal and opportunistic Gingrich really is. As for the money differential, I’ve been bombarded with anti-Romney ads here from the Gingrich superPAC for the last several weeks, and our primary rounds aren’t for weeks to come. If his campaign competence is any indication of his executive ability, then IMHO it’s proving he does not deserve the nomination.

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    “Gingrich got his ass handed to him by women.”

    The Daily Show did a great bit on this the night before the election. They segment Florida women voters into First Wives, Second Wives, and Undivorced Trophy Wives (The “Callistas”). It’s hilarious.

  • Angela

    One woman’s view:

    Gingrich is too idealistic about solutions and too ideological about certain issues. He’s not grounded enough, or level-headed enough, to serve as president at a time when reason, rationale, and realism are needed to fix the major problems facing our nation.