Romney Wins Virginia, Vermont and Massachusetts, But Race Tighter Than Ever

By  | 

So looks like Romney racked up some early, easy wins tonight, but if I’m in the Romney camp…I’m not a happy camper.

Why? Several reasons…

First, Santorum and Gingrich weren’t even on the ballot in Virginia. And while Romney did get nearly 60% of the vote…it was against Ron Paul. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Second, if Romney didn’t easily win Massachusetts and Vermont, he’d be in BIG trouble. Those were gimmes.

Third, Santorum is currently ahead in Ohio and I bet he wins it. Ohio is the crown jewel in this contest and Romney really needed to win it. And with each passing hour, it looks less and less likely.

Last, the delegate count is currently this…
Romney: 200
Gingrich: 64
Santorum: 42
Paul: 8

But how many delegates is Romney set to capture tonight? 101 so far if the contests are winner-take-all, which they aren’t, which makes the math very hard to determine. So I won’t try to split it up. I’ll just go with winner-take-all totals, which is what many will think is happening.

How many will Gingrich get? Since he won Georgia, and only that, probably 76. Santorum will get 63 in Ohio, 40 out of Oklahoma and 55 in Tennessee. Of those contests without any numbers yet, Alaska has 24, Idaho has 32 and Wyoming has 26.

So let’s look at those numbers again if the contests were winner-take-all
Romney: 301
Santorum: 200
Gingrich: 118
Paul: 8
Up for grabs: 82

Who thinks Romney will win Idaho, Wyoming and Alaska? Yeah, me neither. But I won’t speculate at this point. Instead I’ll just say that Santorum has pulled into 2nd in a big way and is gaining on Romney in a big way.

And let’s remember…Santorum wasn’t even on the ballot in Virginia.

More as it develops…

  • Tully

    Santorum’s failure to get on the VA ballot is not a good thing for him, no matter how anyone attempts to spin it. Nor is his failure to qualify delegates for the ballot in parts of Ohio going to help him.

    Who thinks Romney will win Idaho, Wyoming and Alaska? Yeah, me neither. But I won’t speculate at this point.

    You just did. And you were wrong. Romney took all three. Current delegate count per RCP is Romney 404, Santorum 161, Gingrich 105, Paul 61. See reply to subsequent post.