Nate Silver: 2012 Shaping Up To Be Like 2008
The latest polls that came out on Wednesday were literally some of the worst of Romney’s campaign.
Unlike many recent days, when Mr. Obama’s national polls were slightly less euphoric than his swing state surveys, Wednesday’s national polls seemed to support the notion that Mr. Obama has a clear lead in the race. The Gallup national tracking poll gave Mr. Obama a six-point lead among registered voters, close to his high mark on the year in that survey. The online tracking poll conducted by Ipsos gave him a six-point lead among likely voters. Another online tracking poll, from the RAND Corporation, put Mr. Obama’s lead at roughly seven and a half percentage points, his largest of the year in that poll. And a national poll for Bloomberg produced by the pollster J. Ann Selzer, who has a strong track record, put Mr. Obama six points ahead.
Want to see something more astonishing? Silver’s model now has Obama with a 97.8% chance of winning the election, if it were held today. That number drops to 81.9% when projecting out to November 6.
Either way…it’s an ass whopping.
Sure, Obama won’t likely see the 365 electoral votes he won in 2008, but getting over 300 and beating your opponent by over 100 would be seen as a pretty significant mandate.
It’s pretty clear at this point that the “47% comments” are destroying Romney’s chances of even coming close to beating the incumbent. Couple that with the reception of Bill Clinton’s speech at the convention and the growing unpopularity with Republicans among women and minorities…and this thing looks locked up.
The only thing that can really sidetrack Obama at this point is a hidden tape of his own. Because even if he doesn’t do as well as Romney at the debates…it doesn’t matter. Americans know Obama, they know his policies and, according to the polling, the more they hear from him…the more they like him. Plus, the Obama team has been playing the expectations game and underselling his chances for winning…while the Romney team has been saying that Mitt will beat Obama. Pretty bold strategy…and when I say bold…I mean not likely to work.
To close, I’ll leave you with state-by-state poll numbers that show just how bad the situation is for Mitt. I just don’t see how he can recover.