Obama Won. So Did Nate Silver.
While I wasn’t expecting such a sweeping victory, one guy was: Nate Silver.
His Five Thirty Eight blog was a must read throughout the campaign and his projections consistently showed a very likely Obama win. Romney never really came close to defeating Obama in the numbers game except for the week immediately after the first debate. That’s it. And all the while Silver had Obama at above 300 electoral college votes when pundits were calling him a hack.
I recently had a conversation with a VERY conservative friend of mine about reading the polling tea leaves. My friend insisted something big was happening and Romney would win a sweeping victory. I asked him why he thought that. He pointed to a Gallup poll and another general election poll. After seeing how accurate Silver was in 2008, I became a fan, so I told him I thought that wasn’t the best analysis and pointed to Five Thirty Eight. He dismissed it because Silver started out doing his projections for Daily Kos and he was most certainly dolling out partisan projections. I cautioned him to not think that just because Silver is a Dem that he’d be slanting his analysis. After all, if he’s wrong then he’s done. And Silver is a young guy. He has a lot more career in front of him.
Well, guess what? Silver nailed it to the wall. 50 out of 50 states right. Yes, votes still need to get counted in Florida, but it’s very likely that will go for Obama. Who else got that right? Well, most likely a lot of poll aggregators got a majority of the projections right…but all 50? Impressive. Well done Nate
Now…on to the 2014 midterms!